This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet with the Chinese president and prime minister in Beijing on July 24 in what is expected to be a tense EU-China summit with the war in Ukraine and a potential transatlantic trade war looming large in the background.
Brussels will raise the usual concerns about human rights in Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong with Beijing expected to quickly bat away any form of criticism.
Instead, the most heated discussions will likely center around China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and what the EU views as unfair Chinese trade practices, which have led to a ballooning deficit in Sino-European trade in favor of Beijing.
Briefing the media before the summit, European Union officials underlined that the EU presidents are expected to be “direct, open and constructive” but are also “ready to defend our interest.”
50 Years Of Diplomatic Ties
The summit was meant to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic relations between China and the bloc, but don’t expect too many niceties or concrete deliverables of any kind.
Given that both sides are keen to showcase their green credentials, there were hopes in the EU that they would at least agree on a common declaration on the climate, but it is very uncertain if even this will materialize.
This stands in sharp contrast to the EU-Japan summit held the day before in Tokyo, where a 24-page declaration covering a broad policy agenda was expected, including progress on bilateral security ties and a rare earths deal.
The key meeting to look out for in Beijing is the morning session, when von der Leyen and Costa will have a “geo-strategic” discussion with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Have The Gloves Come Off Regarding Ukraine?
Ukraine will take up a big part of the meeting, which comes just a few weeks after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told European diplomats in Brussels that his country could not accept a Russian defeat in the war.
Brussels has long sought not to antagonize China too much on the issue, but the gloves appear to have come off, at least to a certain extent.
EU officials now say openly that 80 percent of dual-use items used by Russia in its war effort originate from China. Brussels has also criticized Beijing’s continued export of components like drone engines to Moscow.
China has also been targeted — both directly and indirectly — in the latest EU sanctions package on Russia agreed last week.
Several Chinese companies and a handful of financial institutions are now blacklisted, with the Chinese Commerce Ministry already criticizing the move.
The fact that Brussels now feels confident and can find unanimity to target Beijing in this way is something new.
New EU restrictions, such as a ban on refined petroleum products made from Russian crude oil and processed in third countries, are also expected to affect China indirectly.
An EU official involved in summit preparations told RFE/RL that no major shift is expected in Beijing’s “no-limits partnership” with Moscow, but Brussels hopes for modest steps, such as tighter customs and financial controls on dual-use goods.
Trade Deficit
The afternoon discussion with Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang will focus on the economic relationship and is expected to be equally delicate.
The EU and China are each other’s second biggest trading partners with trade reaching $2.3 billion daily.
But it’s the trade deficit that is irking Brussels.
Compared to last year, it has doubled to the current $350 billion, with subsidies, procurement barriers, and export controls cited by the EU as real irritants.
No major breakthroughs are expected in Beijing, but EU officials hope China might at least acknowledge the concerns and take steps to stimulate domestic demand or address imbalances.
Brussels will also hint at possible reciprocal measures, referencing past actions against Chinese electric vehicles and dairy products.
But the question is how far the bloc is really ready to go.
It does rely on China for critical minerals and permanent magnets — items that are essential for pretty much all modern technologies.
And, despite the EU’s best efforts to strike new trade deals with the likes of Australia, India and Indonesia to “de-risk” from China, the shortfall will not be covered immediately. Beijing knows this as well.
And then there is the delicate issue of EU-US relations.
Unless a deal can be found in the coming days, American tariffs of 30 percent will hit the EU on August 1 with Brussels poised to strike back with countermeasures on US products worth billions in a move that will derail transatlantic trade.
One EU diplomat told RFE/RL that this was “a prospect that has the Chinese rubbing their hands in sheer delight,” as Beijing has long sought to drive a wedge between Brussels and Washington.
So, expect China in the next few days to very much push the narrative that it, together with Europe, now represents the rules-based international trade order and that the real distorter of commerce and protectionism isn’t to be found in Beijing but in Washington.
Depending on what is happening with the transatlantic trade talks, the EU might just be tempted by such rhetoric.
