The possibility of a huge asteroid hitting the Earth and causing “localized damage” in December of 2032 has continued to increase since the asteroid was first detected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).
According to NBC News, NASA initially released an estimate in January, warning that there was a 1.2% chance that an asteroid could hit the Earth in 2032.
Earlier this month, NASA reported that the asteroid, labeled “2024 YR4,” had a 2.3% chance of hitting the Earth in December of 2032. AFP reported on Tuesday that new information obtained by NASA showed that the possibility of 2024 YR4 hitting the Earth had increased to 3.1%.
Alongside a video graphic released on February 7, NASA Asteroid Watch stated, “While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known.”
According to NASA’s website, the 2024 YR4 asteroid is classified as a “near-Earth asteroid” because it is “in an orbit that brings it into Earth’s region of the Solar System.” NASA noted that the asteroid is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet across and has a “very small chance of Earth impact” that could take place on December 22, 2032. NASA has also confirmed that the asteroid “is large enough to cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth.”
Despite increased concerns regarding the huge asteroid, Royal Astronomical Society Deputy Executive Director Robert Massey told Newsweek he is “not really concerned at all” about the asteroid.
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“It’s the kind of thing that should concern policymakers and astronomers, particularly, whose job it is to track these things and refine orbits,” Massey added. “The odds are very, very low and as observations get better, it’s very likely that the probability will drop to zero, so I don’t think the public should be unduly concerned.”
NASA has announced that continued observations of the asteroid from ground-based telescopes affiliated with the International Asteroid Warning Network will continue “while the asteroid is still visible through April.” NASA also confirmed that the James Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March to “better assess the asteroid’s size.”
“As more observations of the asteroid’s orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,” NASA said. “It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list. It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”
