This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission.
Escalating trade hostilities between China and the United States are putting drone supplies critical to Ukraine’s war effort in the crosshairs.
U.S. media reports suggest Chinese manufacturers are limiting the sale of vital drone components to companies in the United States and the European Union that supply the parts to Ukraine.
The Chinese restrictions could hinder Ukraine on the battlefield, where drones have played a pivotal role. Kyiv’s arsenal of cheap but effective drones is used for reconnaissance, dropping explosives on targets, and defending against Russian attacks.
Beijing’s move is seen as a response to Washington’s decision in December to restrict the sale of high-bandwidth memory chips and additional semiconductor equipment to China. In reaction, Beijing has already banned the sale of dual-use items to the American military and several materials with high-tech and military applications to U.S. companies.
But cutting supplies to drone components that form a key part of Ukraine’s war effort against Russia marks a new element of the escalating trade tensions.
The Chinese move, experts say, also sends a message to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration of China’s ability to counter sanctions imposed by Washington.
“This is partly a response to U.S. tariffs and a form of punishment for American export control measures,” said Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “But restricting this drone tech will have battlefield consequences for Ukraine and could be important ahead of potential cease-fire negotiations.”
Affordable and commercially available drones have become a staple of the nearly three-year war in Ukraine for both Kyiv and Moscow.
The United States maintains an edge in larger military drones. But China dominates the market for cheaper and smaller drones and their components, which have dual-use civilian and military applications.
Several independent surveys estimate that China controls 90 percent of the drone market in the United States and 80 percent globally.
Given this foothold, experts have warned about a growing dependence on China’s control over the global supply chain for drones. Washington has expressed a need to create new supply chains as tit-for-tat trade moves between Beijing and Washington are poised to escalate under the second Trump administration.
“These new controls only underscore the importance of strengthening our efforts with other countries to de-risk and diversify critical supply chains away from [China],” a State Department spokesperson told RFE/RL.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Industry and Information Technology did not respond to RFE/RL’s request for comment.
The Trade War Meets The Drone War
Since 2019, China has created what it called an “unreliable entity list” to penalize companies that undermine Chinese national interests and introduced rules to punish firms that comply with U.S. restrictions on Chinese entities.
The broader reach of these laws enables Beijing to potentially choke global access to critical components, including materials like rare earths and lithium that form essential components in everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.
In terms of the latest limits on shipments of drone components to the United States and Europe, Chinese producers of motors, batteries, and flight controllers have cut the quantities they deliver or in some cases stopped shipments altogether.
One notable example occurred in October when the U.S. drone maker Skydio, which supplies Ukraine’s military, was hit by Chinese sanctions in response to winning a contract from the Taiwanese government.
Skydio has been heralded as a homegrown U.S. alternative to Chinese manufacturers and dependence on Chinese supply chains.
While the U.S. firm had spent years building a supply chain outside China for its products, it still relied on the country for one vital component: batteries.
The Chinese restriction on the supply of batteries to Skydio left the company scrambling to source the items and set back shipments to its clients, which includes the U.S. military, which in turn supplies Kyiv.
In Search Of New Supply Chains
For Kyiv, lessening its dependence on the Chinese supply chain to source drones for the battlefield has proved elusive, with many Ukrainian drone producers still relying on Chinese parts to make the cheap and effective weapons.
China in July announced a ban on exports of drones for military use, and Beijing has claimed that it does not provide weapons to Russia or Ukraine.
But the continued flow of dual-use equipment from China to Russia has aided the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Now, the new restrictions by the Chinese government have made it more difficult for Ukraine to acquire drones and their parts.
In the case of Skydio, Beijing imposed sanctions before the company had secured alternative suppliers, but the firm is reportedly in talks with several companies in Asia, including those in Japan and Taiwan.
Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, is looking to shore up its own drone supply chain given their growing importance in modern warfare and the specter of a potential conflict with Beijing that could see Taiwan cut off.
The self-governing island has stepped up its efforts and has also formed ties with European countries around drone technologies. Its foreign minister led a delegation to discuss the topic in Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland in November and signed memorandums of understanding to advance drone development with all three countries.
“These Chinese trade restrictions could lead to new supply drone chains popping up,” said Webster of the Atlantic Council. “But expect China to also want to restrict their development.”
