A breakneck rally in Tesla Inc. shares on Friday catapulted the electric-vehicle maker’s market value back over the coveted trillion-dollar mark, as investors bet that Donald Trump’s return to the White House can be a positive force for Elon Musk’s company.
Shares of the company closed up 8.2% at $321.22 Friday, taking their gains this year to 29%, and Tesla’s market value to about $1.03 trillion. It is once again among just seven companies in the S&P 500 Index with that status. The last time Tesla shares traded above that level was in April 2022.
Tesla’s stock price has been on a roller-coaster ride in 2024. It was down 43% for the year on April 22, but has been on a tear since then. The rally picked up steam in late October, with the shares rising 18% from Oct. 23 close when Tesla reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and gave solid guidance, through Election Day. And now the stock has got another 28% bump after Trump’s victory due to Musk’s all-in support for the Republican candidate.
The stock’s sharp positive reaction is “more a reflection of Elon Musk’s prominent role within the Trump campaign, and likely a reminder of Tesla as the ‘original meme stock,’ with Tesla trading up alongside crypto,” Barclays analyst Dan Levy wrote in a note on Thursday.
It’s unclear whether Trump’s win will mean any material gains for the EV-maker, particularly in light of Trump’s skepticism of electric vehicles. But that lack of clarity hasn’t been enough to deter the Tesla believers.
Tesla’s call option volume surged to a single-day record on Friday as investors piled in to bullish bets on the stock, with more than 4.7 million contracts trading. Implied volatility for calls surged at one point to the highest level above puts since early 2021, amid the buying frenzy.
“The benefits to Tesla of a Trump win are not as obvious at first glance,” Barclays’ Levy added. “With EV policy potentially de-emphasized and possible elimination of EV purchase credits, it would be negative to Tesla’s U.S. vehicle sales.”
But the meme-stock like move may not be done yet. While Tesla’s stock market comeback has been dramatic, the shares are still only just catching up with the broader S&P 500 this year. And prior to the Trump-fueled gains, it was the worst performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven mega tech companies. Some investors see this as a sign that the stock has room for a catch-up rally before the end of the year.
Apart from that, however, it’s hard to see why Tesla shares will rise much more, some Wall Street pros said. Its profits for the year are estimated to drop by 23%, making it the only Magnificent Seven company to see a decline. In addition, its attempt at becoming an artificial intelligence powerhouse — the main premise on which its massive valuation rests — is still far from certain, especially after its self-driving vehicle failed to rouse much enthusiasm following its unveiling in October.
Tesla shares are trading at about 102 times forward earnings. By comparison, AI-darling Nvidia, whose stock has also been on a stratospheric climb over the past two years, trades at a multiple of roughly 39.
“It is way too early to determine any material benefits for Tesla outside of hopes from the Trump win,” said David Mazza, chief executive officer of Roundhill Financial. “This is just the latest example of the Tesla ‘dream premium’ playing out.”
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© 2024 Bloomberg L.P
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