This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission.
Thursday‘s record-long ICBM test indicated that Pyongyang’s missile program is being helped along by its closer ties to Russia, North Korea observers in the United States told Radio Free Asia.
Pyongyang fired what it called a new intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, which flew at an altitude of 7,000 kilometers (4,300 miles) for about 87 minutes, the longest-ever flight of a North Korean ICBM, and landed in waters off northwest Japan, the South Korean and Japanese militaries said.
It was the first ICBM test since December, and the seventh in as many years.
“North Korea is getting ever more dangerous missile technology thanks to its new alliance with Russia, and I think yesterday’s test goes a long way to proving that,” Harry Kazianis, of the Washington-based Center for the National Interest thinktank, told RFA Korean.
Kazianis said it seemed like Pyongyang was gaining billions of U.S. dollars in economic aid and missile technology, or even nuclear weapons technology from Moscow.
He said that it appeared that neither Washington nor Seoul could do very much to address the threat posed by the Russia-North Korea alliance.
“With Russia now bankrolling the Kim [Jong Un] family and China looking the other way when it comes to sanctions there is little that can be done—North Korea is in the drivers seat,” said Kazianis, adding that Russia’s interest in North Korea would wane if war in Ukraine were to end.
“The longer the Ukraine war goes the more powerful Kim Jong Un’s missile will become,” he said.
South Korea, Japan and the United States condemned the test, North Korea’s latest violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions aimed at curbing its development of nuclear weapons and the missiles to carry them around the world.
ICBM test timeline
North Korea first tested an ICBM in July 2017. It would test two more that year, including one in November that traveled for 50 minutes and reached an altitude of 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles).
Over the next five years, Pyongyang would not test any more ICBMs, but in March 2022, it launched another ICBM that blew up shortly after takeoff.
North Korea tested four more ICBMs in 2022 and 2023, and Thursday’s test was the first of 2024.
The launch came less than a week before the U.S. presidential election.
But regardless of who wins the election, Washington’s North Korea strategy will not be heavily influenced by missile tests, David Maxwell, vice president of the Washington-based Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, told RFA.
“It is doubtful that either Harris or Trump will be influenced to change policy in a way that will benefit [North Korean leader] Kim [Jong Un],” said Maxwell. “But does Kim think that Trump would serve him better? I think he would be mistaken and disappointed. I do not believe either he or Harris will provide the concessions he desires.”
Maxwell said that South Korea and the U.S. should recognize and counter Kim’s political warfare strategies and attempts to drive a wedge between them.
