Southeast Asia’s top diplomats expressed their anxieties over the weekend about the risk of an “emerging arms race” in the region, as tensions between global powers persist with ever more countries seeking to throw their hats into the Indo-Pacific ring.
Self-restraint, adherence to international law and dialogue-led resolutions using ASEAN mechanisms must be exercised to prevent an open conflict, ASEAN ministers reiterated in a joint communique released on Saturday after their annual week-long ministerial meetings with partnering nations including the United States, China and Russia.
China’s rapid rise to superpower status in the past decade has rearranged much of the world’s geopolitical landscape, forcing Southeast Asian countries to grapple with the tensions emerging from Beijing’s increasingly active foreign policy and its subsequent resistance from existing hegemon Washington, a competition of influence that has so far tested the limits of diplomacy.
With increased security alliances, surging military activities and more frequent confrontational incidents quickly becoming among the region’s most defining characteristics, ASEAN foreign ministers urged, in the communique, that global powers do what they must to de-escalate and keep the area free from weapons of mass destruction.
“We expressed concerns about the possible negative consequences and impact of autonomous weapons systems on global security and regional security and regional and international stability, including the risk of an emerging race, lowering the threshold for conflict and proliferation,” the ministers said.
Amid ASEAN’s efforts to establish its primacy in the region, there has been a spike in external interests solidifying their positions in the Indo-Pacific in recent years, a phenomenon that has been widely deemed as complicating existing tensions initially sparked by the US-China rivalry.
Australia and the United Kingdom, for example, formed a triad with the US (AUKUS) in 2021 to bring nuclear-powered submarines into the region, just a few years before the Australia-India-Japan-US security pact (Quad) was revived after having lain dormant for over a decade.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in July also expressed its interest in increasing its engagement in the region.
In response, China has more recently appeared to try to strengthen its power alliances, aligning itself more closely with Russia, another major nuclear weapon-holding power at odds with the West, to fortify its presence in the region.
At the week-long ASEAN talks in Vientiane last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, where the two reiterated their willingness to “firmly support each other [and] safeguard each other’s core interests”.
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“Russia will work with China to support ASEAN’s central position and prevent sabotage and interference by extraterritorial forces,” said a Chinese official statement on Friday.
“Russia and China have been working in tandem on building a multipolar world order with better justice for all, guided by the principle of genuine multilateralism,” Lavrov said two days previously.
AOIP rules
Expressing their concern over these latest developments, ASEAN ministers once again underlined the bloc’s primacy in the region.
It urged its partners to adhere to its outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which promotes the use of ASEAN-led mechanisms and dialogue to solve differences and places regional cooperation back into the context of development.
“We expressed concern on the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the region. […] We underscored ASEAN’s determination in shaping and leading the evolving regional architecture [and to] ensure that the geopolitical and geostrategic shifts will continue to bring about, and not disrupt, regional peace, security and prosperity,” the ministers said.
Included in ASEAN’s vision for the region is accession to the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) Treaty by countries internationally recognized as nuclear-weapon states (NWS), given their increased presence in the region, a protocol that has seen little progress in the past two decades.
“We expressed concern over the declining commitment and cooperation in global non-proliferation […] and called on countries, especially NWS, to maintain and fully implement their commitments,” ASEAN ministers said.
On the issue of the South China Sea, where Beijing’s sweeping maritime claim has turned the strategic waters into a theater of the US-China rivalry, ASEAN urged “the importance of non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of all activities […] that could further complicate the situation and escalate tensions”.
Next leadership
Analysts have previously warned that these geopolitical trends will require a firmer and more united ASEAN.
They said only a regional resolve could remedy the tensions as none of the ASEAN member states has sufficient individual leverage to deal with competing major powers bilaterally.
ASEAN leaders have been slated to continue the discussions at the highest level in October, when the baton of ASEAN leadership will be passed on to Malaysia, which has declared its eagerness to take advantage of the recent discussions to negotiate for a stable region.
“Malaysia will continue to work closely with ASEAN member states to make ASEAN an important bloc in the global political and economic system with various advantages possessed by each of its member countries,” said its foreign minister Mohamad Hasan, as quoted by Malaysian state media.
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