A new study shows that concerns of a potential U.S. civil war have spread to America’s neighbors, as Canada considers the possibility of a civil war in the United States as an “underanticipated disruption.”
A recent study labeled “Disruptions on the Horizon” led to Politico publishing an article titled “Canada’s Big Worry: a US Civil War.”
While the concern over a U.S. civil war was not in Canada’s “Top 10 most likely disruptions,” a potential U.S. civil war was listed under “underanticipated disruptions” that “decision makers may need to consider more thoroughly than the survey results indicate.”
The report addressed the possibility of a U.S. civil, stating, “U.S. ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest escalate, plunging the country into civil war.”
Many Americans have expressed concerns over the possibility of another civil war due to the growing division between Republicans and Democrats in the United States. The possibility of another civil war has been amplified as the 2024 election cycle has led to political violence, culminating in the recent assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump.
The possibility of a civil war was also highlighted in A24’s “Civil War” movie that was released earlier this year. The film portrayed a futuristic United States divided and engaged in an armed conflict.
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Addressing the possibility of “a national divorce,” Bruce Stokes, an associate fellow at the US and the Americas Programme, warned, “The US is now more divided along ideological and political lines than at any time since the 1850s.”
Stokes pointed to a poll conducted in 2022 that showed two in five Americans believed a civil war was at least somewhat likely to occur over the next ten years. Instead of a united country, Stokes described the United States as “two Americas” and warned that the division in the country could be seen “across a range of divisive social issues.”
“America’s friends and allies need to understand that the United States has become a Disunited States. There are effectively two Americas – and they are at war,” Stokes stated. “They are fighting over social, political and constitutional issues, and over what role the US should play in the world. The 2024 US election is just another battle in this war.”
According to Politico, John McArthur, a member of the Policy Horizons Canada committee, also highlighted the concerns outlined in Canada’s recent report. While McArthur said the likelihood of a civil war would depend on “how one defines civil war,” he said, “Any sense of disruption to your closest sovereign relationship in the world, any disruption within that country, is a deep worry, I think, to any Canadian outlook.”
