The rerun election between the 46th and 45th presidents remains close, but the addition of independent options tips the scales in favor of former President Donald Trump, according to the newest NPR/Marist Poll.
The survey of 1,261 American adults released Thursday — ahead of Trump’s conviction — shows that President Joe Biden wouldn’t have to move out of the White House next year if it were just a race between he and the presumptive Republican nominee.
However, when independent candidate Cornel West and perennial Green Party nominee Jill Stein are added to the mix alongside Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the number of voters pulled away from Biden turns a narrow re-election victory into a rout.
Without Stein and West, Biden beats Trump again in their second matchup, 50-48. With the pair of liberal-leaning third party alternatives included, the survey shows Trump winning handily at 44-40.
“Despite Biden’s campaign appearances and Trump’s court appearances, the contest for president has been and remains tight,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said with the poll’s release. “When it comes to this rematch, it’s as if voters are saying, ‘tell me something about Biden and Trump, I don’t already know.’”
Trump’s criminal trial in New York City, where he was found guilty of 34 felony charges of falsifying his business records to cover up hush-money payments to a porn star former mistress, has not affected his standing with voters — yet — according to the poll.
However, a guilty verdict on the books might change how some voters feel about casting a ballot for his second term in office, both for and against.
“While 67% of registered voters nationally say it makes no difference to their vote if Trump is found guilty in his “hush money” trial, 17% report they would be less likely to vote for him if he is convicted. Fifteen percent would be more likely to vote for Trump. Conversely, 76% of voters say a not guilty verdict would not impact their vote. Nine percent would be less likely to vote for Trump, and 14% would be more likely to vote for him,” pollsters wrote.
Most voting Americans dislike both candidates, the poll shows. Only 42% have a positive view of Biden and 41% harbor good feelings about Trump, while a majority — 52% and 54% — don’t like the 81-year-old incumbent president or think very highly of his 77-year-old resurgent rival.
At the same time, while the poll shows most voters have already made up their minds well before the sure-to-be expensive summer campaign season gets into full swing, it also indicates there is room for either candidate to grow their base.
“About two in three registered voters (66%) say they know for whom they plan to vote, and nothing will change their mind. 68% of both Biden and Trump supporters are firm in their commitment to their candidate. 25% of voters think they have a good idea of the candidate they will support but could change their mind,” pollsters wrote.
The general election is scheduled for Nov. 5.
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