Most polls have the 2024 presidential race at a statistical tie, with Donald Trump having an edge against Joe Biden in most of the half-dozen or so swing states that will likely decide the outcome.
But there’s another number in the contest that should alarm Biden.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, Biden’s net approval average has reached an all-time low.
Currently, 37.6% approve of the job he’s doing and 57% disapprove. That’s a net of nearly 20%.
It comes a day after FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gave Biden “a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election” and “Trump still has a 47-in-100 chance” because of the “fundamentals” in the race that leaned slightly toward Biden.
For context, incumbents with job approvals below 50% right before elections have lost reelections while those with approvals above 50% have won. That’s according to a breakdown by Gallup, which showed the last incumbent presidents in recent history to lose reelection were Trump, who was at 34% when he lost in 2020, George H.W. Bush, who was at 34% job approval just before he lost in 1992, and Jimmy Carter, who was at 37%.
Barack Obama was at 52% job approval right before his reelection and George W. Bush bucked the 50% trend by winning reelection with a 48% approval.
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Matt Arco may be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter at @MatthewArco.
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