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Trump on pace to beat Biden, top pollster says

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on gun violence prevention in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington on April 8, 2021. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS)
February 20, 2024

Nate Silver, a top pollster and founder of the polling website FiveThirtyEight, issued a stark warning to Democrats on Monday that President Joe Biden is on pace to “lose to Trump” as Democrats currently have “no plan to fix the problems” with his 2024 campaign.

In the FiveThirtyEight founder’s “Silver Bulletin” newsletter released Monday, Silver presented a thorough analysis of the anticipated rematch between 81-year-old Biden and 77-year-old former President Donald Trump. The famous pollster noted that his prediction of the 2024 presidential election has shifted significantly over the past year as concerns over Biden’s age and refusal to engage in major interviews, such as the typical Super Bowl interview, have increased.

“If you’d asked me a year ago, I would have told you that Joe Biden was a reasonably clear favorite in the event of a rematch against Donald Trump,” Silver stated. The FiveThirtyEight founder warned that since that time, “Biden’s situation has become considerably worse.”

“If he were 10 years younger, he might still be a 65/35 favorite,” Silver added. “But if his campaign is substantially encumbered by his age, he’s probably the underdog.”

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Silver previously called for the Democrat Party to consider supporting a different candidate if Biden did not “run a normal campaign.” While Silver has acknowledged that it would be a “huge risk” to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee, he has argued that the Biden campaign is not heading in the right direction.

“He’s losing now and there’s no plan to fix the problems other than hoping that the polls are wrong or that voters look at the race differently when they have more time to focus on it,” Silver warned.

According to RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, Trump continues to hold a lead over Biden in the national polling average as the president continues to face historically low approval ratings. Silver noted that Special Counsel Robert Hur’s report regarding the investigation into Biden’s mishandling of classified documents, which described the president as an “elderly man with a poor memory,” has likely contributed to the Biden campaign’s recent struggles in the polls.

“Biden needs to reassure the American public that he’s capable of handling public appearances that aren’t on easy mode. Or he needs to stand down,” Silver stated in a post on X, formerly Twitter. “Or he’s probably going to lose to Trump.”