The Bay Area and California suffered a population decline in 2022, according to a disquieting new government report that hints at an ongoing exodus of residents from the nation’s largest state.
The population decline engulfed all four of California’s largest cities and seven of the state’s 10 largest cities, which shows that the dwindling trend of residents isn’t merely some isolated cases, but extends to all of the state’s major population centers, the state Finance Department reported in its new release.
The Bay Area lost just a shade under 34,000 residents in 2022, a review of the state agency’s report shows. The Bay Area now has approximately 7.55 million residents. The nine-county region’s population shrank by 0.4%.
One hopeful sign despite the decline: The pace of the population shrinkage lessened this year.
In 2021, the Bay Area population dwindled by 0.7%, so the 0.4% decline represents a significant slowdown in the pace at which people have exited the nine counties.
“We have seen a slowdown in immigration as a result of federal policies,” said Russell Hancock, president of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a San Jose-based think tank. “That has slowed our population growth.”
Another factor that could be driving the population decline is the sudden burst of remote work that was ushered in by government shutdowns that were crafted to curb the spread of COVID-19.
“People are acting as their own economic agents,” Hancock said. “People found that remote work was viable. They were able to keep their exciting job in Silicon Valley but were able to live in a less-expensive house outside of the Bay Area.”
San Jose lost nearly 4,500 residents and now has a population of 959,300, the state agency estimated. That puts the Bay Area’s largest city on a trajectory to no longer be the nation’s 10th-largest municipality. That top 10 placement might go to Austin, Texas, which, according to the World Population Review website, now has about 966,300 residents. Jacksonville, Florida also has chugged past San Jose and has slightly fewer than 963,000 residents.
San Francisco suffered the largest population loss among the region’s cities, losing more than 5,300 residents for a decline of 0.6%
Oakland lost 2,250 residents, a drop of 0.5%, the Finance Department report stated.
Los Angeles lost 36,600 residents, a 1% decline, while San Diego suffered a drop of 4,400 people, down 0.3%.
All nine of the Bay Area’s counties lost population in 2022. The largest numerical decline was in Alameda County, which shed nearly 8,100 residents.
California lost 138,400 residents and now has a population of 38.94 million, for a decline of 0.4%
Meanwhile, many Bay Area counties are seeing an increase in their overall housing stock. The uptick is particularly noticeable in Alameda County, which saw 8,567 more housing units created from 2022 to 2023.
Here’s how the Bay Area’s 10 largest cities fared in terms of their current population, loss or gain, and percentage change in population in 2022 compared with 2021.
—San Jose, 959,256, down 4,489, or 0.5%
—San Francisco, 831,703, down 5,333, or 0.6%
—Oakland, 419,556, down 2,250, or 0.5%
—Fremont, 229,467, up 345, or a gain of 0.2%
—Hayward, 160,081, down 281, or 0.2%
—Sunnyvale, 156,317, down 47
—Santa Clara, 132,476, up 2,014, or 1.5%
—Berkeley, 123,562, up 374, or 0.3%
—Concord, 122,074, down 1,028, or 0.8%
While the slump in population may disheartening at present, experts have cause for optimism on this front.
“The population loss is about to come to an end in the Bay Area,” said Steve Levy, director of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. “The death rate is lessening. Immigration will pick up with international travel increasing and fewer restrictions on travel.”
Some experts even see a silver lining in terms of slightly more housing being built at the same time people are leaving the area.
“The increase in the number of homes that we built is a slight positive in terms of addressing the imbalance in housing and population,” Levy said.
After the current economic woes abate, the Bay Area will still be in good shape, even with the current uncertainties that loom over the tech sector, Hancock believes.
“The Silicon Valley dynamism is still going to be in place,” Hancock said.
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