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Trump would beat Biden, win GOP field regardless of size, Harvard poll shows

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire Republican State Committee's Annual Meeting on Jan. 28, 2023, in Salem, New Hampshire. (Scott Eisen/Getty Images/TNS)

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would be the 47th President of the United States, according to a survey of 1,838 registered voters.

According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris survey conducted on Feb. 15 and 16, those asked said they would choose Biden and Trump to win their respective party primaries in 2024, setting up the potential for a repeat of 2020’s contest.

Vice President Kamala Harris takes second in the Democratic Party and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis takes second on the Republican side, according to those polled.

Polling shows, however, that Biden would not do as well in a second matchup against the 45th president as he did in the first, when he earned a historic 81,283,098 votes, or 51.3% of the votes cast, becoming the first candidate earn more than 80 million votes.

Trump won just 46.8% of the vote, or 74,222,958 votes, the last time around. Despite that, the former president, those surveyed indicated, would win a rematch by a wide margin.

“According to the polling memo, President Trump would beat Joe Biden by 5 points in the general election. Conversely, the survey shows that President Trump’s nearest opponent and Joe Biden are virtually tied in a hypothetical general election,” Trump’s campaign wrote in response to the poll’s results.

Though 13% remain undecided, of those surveyed 46% would choose Trump over Biden’s 41%. These numbers are actually unchanged from January’s survey results, pollsters indicated.

Biden’s support among those polled regarding a theoretical race against DeSantis remains unchanged at 41%, with the Sunshine State’s governor winning by a single point and 17% undecided.

DeSantis, who seems at the moment to be Trump’s most significant potential challenger, garnered just 23% support against the 45th President.

Those polled said their biggest concerns at the moment are inflation and price increases, which were top of mind for more than a third of people at 36%, while the economy and jobs stood at 27% and immigration at 24%. Gun concerns and worries over crime or drugs both occupied the thoughts of 17%.

Only a third of those polled thought the country was on the right track, and while pollsters said that “perception of the economy is improving,” again just one third thought the nation’s financial affairs are in order.

Only half of respondents said their personal financial situation has gotten worse, an improvement from January’s 56% gloom.

Optimism wins out over pessimism among those surveyed, with 44% saying the next year will be better and 22% thinking it will be about the same. More than a third, or 34%, think things will only get worse by next January.


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