The Economist and YouGov found that 84 percent of those polled believe “mass protests” will occur in President Donald Trump wins reelection.
According to the bipartisan results, 82 percent of Democrats and 83 percent of Republicans think it’s likely that demonstrations break out if Trump is reelected. With independents, 85 percent believe Trump’s reelection will spark protests.
The poll also showed that just nine percent, or one in 11 people, believe violent protests are unlikely.
Standing in stark contrast to what respondents believe regarding a Trump victory sparking protests, less than half believe mass protests are likely if Democrat candidate Joe Biden wins. While 45 percent think demonstrations are likely in the wake of a Biden victory, 45 percent also think protests are unlikely.
Just under half of the Democrats polled foresee mass protests if their candidate wins, whereas 40 percent disagree. If Biden wins, 48 percent of independents believe mass protests will occur and 45 percent say it’s unlikely.
Democrats and Independents are more likely than Republicans to believe mass protests will take place if Biden wins. Almost half of Republicans think mass protests are unlikely if Biden wins the presidency.
After the election, the majority of voters do believe there will be a peaceful transition of power if Biden wins.
“Beyond the immediate aftermath of the election, some voters also have doubts about whether there will be a peaceful transition of power in January if Biden wins,” the poll results stated. “Most (54%) likely voters say it is likely that there would be a peaceful transition of power, but 35% think it’s unlikely. Republicans (62%) are more likely than Independents (54%) and Democrats (43%) to predict a peaceful transition of power in the event that Biden is victorious.”
The Economist poll, directed by YouGov, used a “nationally representative sample of 1,500 registered voters.” Each voter was interviewed online between October 25 and 27, 2020. The sample was based on the American Community Survey by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, in addition to 2016 presidential election vote, registration status, geographic region and news interest.
“Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all US citizens,” YouGov reported. “The margin of error is approximately 3.1% for the overall sample.”
The survey’s results come on the heels of a summer filled with nationwide civil unrest that was sparked by the death of George Floyd while in custody of the Minneapolis PD. Several Election Day demonstrations have already been organized, including the anti-Trump protest ShutDownDc. According to their website, “…the stakes are simply too high to sit at home and watch the results play out.”