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Poll: 34% of US voters think a civil war is ‘likely’ within 5 years

Thousands of demonstrators march on Capitol Hill. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca Press/TNS)
June 24, 2020

More than one-third of Americans believe that a civil war will happen within five years, according to a new poll from Rasmussen.

The poll, conducted on June 11 and June 14, found that 34 percent of registered U.S. voters believe that a second civil war is “likely” to occur in the next half decade. Republicans are more likely to hold this opinion, with 40 percent of registered GOP voters answering that they believe a civil war is coming. According to the poll, 28 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of unaffiliated voters believe a civil war is coming.

Black respondents were the least optimistic that recent nationwide protests would lead to positive change, with 29 percent saying they believed a civil war would happen within five years. However, Blacks were much more confident than whites and other minorities that the removal of Confederate statues would help race relations, with 54 percent of Blacks saying it would help compared to 36 percent of whites and 40 percent of other minorities.

The poll found that 37 percent feel the current protests over the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America, 31 percent said they disagree and 32 percent said they were unsure. Floyd, a black man, died after a white police officer knelt on Floyd’s neck while attempting to restrain and detain him.

Almost one-third of Democrats, 32 percent, shared New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s opinion that “we’re not going to make America great again. It was never that great.”

The Rasmussen Reports survey polled 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence. The poll comes off the heels of nationwide riots that have resulted in dozens of deaths, injuries, and even two cases of localities attempting to succeed from the union.

During the height of the riots, a poll from Morning Consult showed that 71 percent of the voters it surveyed support the use of the National Guard to address the “protests and demonstrations” in American cities.

The poll also found that 42 percent of the 1,624 U.S. voters it surveyed “strongly support” the use of the National Guard, while 29 percent said they “somewhat support” the idea. Conversely, seven percent “somewhat oppose” and 11 percent “strongly oppose” the use of the National Guard.

Additionally, 58 percent of voters said they supported “calling in the U.S. military to supplement city police force,” according to Morning Consult. The poll also found that 30 percent said they were opposed to the idea.

Although the majority of voters support the use of the National Guard or the military to stifle riots, according to the poll, the majority of respondents, 57 percent, said at the same that they support George Floyd-related demonstrations, while 23 percent said they oppose the demonstrations.